By Durell Namasani

In a scathing Facebook analysis that has ignited fierce debate in political circles, prominent political analyst Lyson Sibande has dropped a bombshell claim that Malawi Congress Party (MCP) president Lazarus Chakwera deliberately engineered the sidelining of Moses Kunkuyu not because of incompetence, but because the former minister would simply be too effective for the leader’s personal political survival.

Sibande pulled no punches in his assessment, declaring outright that the MCP has “lost a powerful, brilliant and able Leader of Opposition in Hon. Moses Kunkuyu,” adding that he had personally maintained from the very beginning that the party needed Kunkuyu for effective opposition. But it was his explanation of the political machinations behind the scenes that sent shockwaves through the political landscape.

“I understand politics,” Sibande wrote with the confidence of an insider pulling back the curtain. According to his analysis, the decision to sideline Kunkuyu had nothing to do with the former minister’s capabilities and everything to do with Chakwera’s calculation for 2030. “The only reason the MCP president would not want a powerful and effective Leader of Opposition is if he intends to remain relevant and not lose influence towards 2030,” Sibande argued.

The analyst painted a devastating picture of internal party dynamics, suggesting that an effective Leader of Opposition in Kunkuyu would “easily overshadow Chakwera and threaten everyone’s interests for 2030 in MCP.” What Chakwera did, Sibande explained, represents a classic political trade-off—”excellent politics for his personal survival and ambitions, but very bad politics for his party and the country.”

But Sibande didn’t stop at criticism; he offered what he considered a superior alternative strategy that Chakwera should have pursued. He proposed that the MCP leader should have appointed Kunkuyu as a “powerful and effective Leader of Opposition to keep the party vibrant in Parliament and public dialogue,” while simultaneously working to “contain his influence in intraparty affairs so that he does not become a problem at the 2029/2030 convention.”

The analyst’s conclusion carried the weight of disappointment: “Osati zomwe zinachitikazi ayi!”—a Chichewa expression roughly translating to “Not the way things happened, no!”

Sibande’s analysis comes amid a turbulent period for the MCP, which lost power in the September 2025 elections and has since seen multiple senior figures, including Kunkuyu himself, arrested in what the party describes as politically motivated crackdowns. Kunkuyu was recently charged with inciting violence over remarks made during a funeral, with his arrest sparking parliamentary protests over immunity violations .

As the MCP navigates its role as opposition party while fending off what it terms politically motivated arrests, Sibande’s analysis raises uncomfortable questions about whether the party’s leadership is prioritizing internal power struggles over mounting an effective challenge to the ruling DPP. With 2030 looming on the political horizon, his warning that personal ambition may have trumped party interests resonates as both a critique and a prophecy.