By Burnett Munthali
JD Vance is emerging as the clear favorite for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, with prediction market odds showing him leading the pack with a 48-54% chance of securing the nomination.
Vance’s strong showing in early polling has caught the attention of political analysts, with CNN’s Harry Enten likening him to racing legend Mario Andretti, saying “JD Vance is like Mario Andretti, and Marco Rubio and the rest of the field are going around in go-karts at this point”.

The Ohio senator’s commanding position in New Hampshire, where he’s polling at 51%, has contributed significantly to his frontrunner status, leaving other contenders like Nikki Haley and Tulsi Gabbard far behind.
Vance’s momentum is also reflected in his narrow lead over Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom in a hypothetical matchup, with 46% of voters supporting him compared to Newsom’s 45%.
Despite not having formally declared his candidacy, Vance is already receiving backing from conservative groups, including Turning Point USA, which plans to build campaign infrastructure in Iowa on his behalf.
Republican strategist Scott Jennings notes that Vance will need to define the party’s direction as its presumptive nominee, distancing himself from media figures who profit from outrage and conspiracy theories.
Vance’s rise to the top is attributed to his recent vice-presidential role and growing popularity among conservative voters, making him a strong contender for the 2028 presidential election.




