The history of political and electoral alliances in Malawi is well documented and what comes out obvious in those relationships is that they are marriages of convenience.
In the aftermath of Malawi’s first democratic elections in 1994, the country saw the United Democratic Front (UDF) and Alliance for Democracy (Aford) forming an electoral alliance to govern.
The country’s Constitution was tempered to appease the Aford leader Chakufwa Chihana with the position of Second Vice President of the Republic since UDF struggled in Parliament against strong opposition from the Malawi Congress Party (MCP).
The “marriage” did not last and as a result, Aford as a party was weakened because several senior members opted to remain in the UDF government when Chihana left his position as Second Vice President.
The country has seen several electoral alliances that collapse soon after elections because either it has failed to achieve electoral victory or failure to agree on power sharing.
Fast forward. The introduction of the 50+1 electoral system during the constitutional court sanctioned presidential polls in 2020 has almost made political alliances inevitable.
During the 2020 elections, the then ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) bedded the UDF while the main contenders, MCP partnered with the United Transformation Movement (UTM), Peoples Party (PP) and other six political parties.
Immediately after the elections, it became apparent that DPP and UDF marriage would not last. On the other hand, the country has been waiting for the fallout between MCP and UTM.
Members of both parties have been aggressive against each other and almost waiting for their leaders to react. So far, the wait has been in vain because President Lazarus Chakwera and Vice President Saulos Chilima have not publicly yielded to the aggression.
The bone of contention has been the presidential candidacy for the Tonse Alliance in the 2025 elections between MCP’s Chakwera and UTM’s Chilima amid speculations that the two entered into a specific agreement.
The interest for this column is not about who will be the presidential candidate for the Tonse Alliance because from where I am standing, MCP and UTM alliance is not permanent.
Firstly, Malawians should know that political dynamics change with time. What prevailed and necessitated the formation of electoral alliances in 2020 might not be there in 2025.
Secondly, the political interests of MCP and UTM might be different in 2025 from those that existed in 2020. Every election offers an opportunity for new political bedfellows.
And this is not to rule out the possibility of MCP and UTM racing the presidency in 2025 as partners. However, it should not be peddled as an obvious rather it should be viewed as a matter that is subject to negotiations.
It is also expected that apart from constitutional matters coming into play, the two parties have national conventions where decisions are made and candidates elected.
Nonetheless, imaging the presidential election ballot paper having no black cock representing the Malawi Congress Party, the biggest party in the country is simply a joke.
From a bird’s eye view, the Kamuzu Institute of Sports agreement was for the 2020 presidential elections and like any other electoral alliance not permanent.
In fact, there has never been an alliance between MCP and UTM and that is why the two parties contest against each other whenever there are by-elections.
